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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-02 22:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around 1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that basin since July 31. The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment. Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt. There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone. The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains high through that period. The global models then vary on the strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the end of the forecast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at all times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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