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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-03 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is undergoing a rapid intensification evolution. An earlier GMI microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off, and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt. Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so. Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit further. Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier marine layer air mass. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest. There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48 hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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