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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-03 10:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030831 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night, and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also the recently improved eye pattern. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south. Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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