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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 40
2014-08-22 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222035 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 A symmetric convective ring or eye feature noted in a 1659 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass and a cloud-filled eye in visible images indicate that Karina has regained hurricane status. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65kt from both TAFB and SAB are the basis for raising the initial intensity to 65 kt. Karina is expected to maintain hurricane strength during the next 12 hours or so before the cyclone moves over sub-26C sea surface temperatures and into a less conducive thermodynamic environment. Weakening is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period and Karina is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC forecast is a little below the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 050/5, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the north. There is little change in the forecast track from the previous advisory. Karina is expected to move northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 48 hours under the influence of Lowell's large circulation. Through the remaining portion of the forecast period, Karina should turn toward the northwest and ultimately toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The NHC official forecast is basically an update from the previous package and is close to the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus) and the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.5N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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