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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 41
2014-08-23 04:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230250 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Karina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at nearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time. Its appearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small eye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery. A corresponding warm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 70 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA SATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at least 70 kt. The recent intensification trend is expected to be short-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48 hours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow weakening is forecast. After that, stronger shear and a drier environment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be 045/6. There is very little change to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while interacting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. After Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more toward the north. There is considerably more uncertainty in the forecast beyond 72 hours. Some models forecast that Karina will turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of Lowell. Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second Fujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion. The official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been slowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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