je.st
news
Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 45
2014-08-24 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240249 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to restrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a decrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been lowered to 65 kt. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days, particularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over the 25 deg SST isotherm. The dynamical models are in good agreement that only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours. Karina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell. After 48 hours, the spread in the track guidance remains large. Most of the dynamical models have converged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward before being absorbed or sheared. However, the extent and timing of this interaction remains highly uncertain. Since the track guidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over the last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been conservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.8N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 18.2N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||