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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-08-21 04:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210252 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane this evening, as the eye has dramatically warmed and the surrounding cloud tops of the eyewall have cooled. At 00Z, a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications averaged maximum winds of 95 kt. However, the continued convective development in the last three hours suggests that the advisory intensity be boosted to 100 kt, and even that may be conservative. While the hurricane has shown an impressive evolution in the last day, this should not continue much longer. Kenneth will reach the 26C SST isotherm with drier, less unstable air late Monday, and it is anticipated that Kenneth will peak by then. In about three days, the vertical shear will go up appreciably due to Kenneth approaching an upper-level trough. The combination of the hostile thermodynamics and shear should cause a steady weakening through the forecast period. Kenneth's deep convection is likely to dissipate in three to four days, signaling the system's transformation to a post-tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is substantially higher than previously in the short-term due to the unanticipated rapid intensification, but similar for 36 hours and beyond. This prediction is closest to a blend of the HMON dynamical model and the LGEM/SHIPS statistical models. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 kt, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast. Kenneth should gradually turn toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days at about the same rate of forward speed, as it rounds the mid-level ridge and is impacted by a cut-off mid- to upper-level low farther north. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days, its forward speed should slow as it reaches a weaker steering flow. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged through day 2 and is farther north beyond that time, based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.8N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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