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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-08-22 04:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220240 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Kenneth's previously distinct eye is clouding over as its eye temperature cools, while the surrounding eyewall convection warms and weakens. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT have dropped and a blend of them suggests an intensity of 95 kt at 00Z. Continued deterioration of the convective structure is justification for maximum winds of 90 kt at advisory time. While no recent size observations have been available, earlier AMSU estimates along with the limited extent of the cold cloud canopy suggest that Kenneth is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 80 nm from the center on average. Kenneth should continue to weaken - perhaps rapidly - under the influence of cool to cold SSTs, dry and less unstable air, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear. Kenneth should likely lose all of its organized deep convection in 2-3 days, signaling its transformation to a post-tropical cyclone at that time. The official intensity forecast is based upon the tightly packed dynamical and statistical model guidance and is a bit lower than the previous advisory. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, as it rounds the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and toward a mid- to upper-level low farther north. Over the next couple of days, Kenneth should turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of speed. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone, it should turn back toward the northwest and slow its forward speed within the weak, low-level tradewinds. The official track forecast is based upon the usually reliable global and hurricane dynamical models, minus the substantially slower and to the left UKMET solution (which has not been performing well thus far this season). The new track forecast is slightly northeast of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.2N 132.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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