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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-08-22 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221431 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth is moving over SSTs below 26 deg C and continues to weaken. Using a blend of CI- and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set to 70 kt. Continued weakening is likely as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough to the west of Kenneth. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest D-SHIPS guidance and calls for the system to decay rapidly to a tropical depression in 36 hours and to a remnant low in 48 hours, although this could occur even sooner than shown here. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is displaced a bit to the southwest of the mid-level center. The initial motion is now estimated to be north-northwestward or 330/10 kt. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast or reasoning. Global models show a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a mid-level trough near 140W longitude over the next few days. Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward through the break until later in the forecast period when the shallow cyclone is likely to turn to the left following the low-level flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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