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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-20 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 201432 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth is gradually strengthening. Satellite images show that the cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast and curved bands beyond that feature, especially to the south of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 4.0/65 kt, and recent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased a little to 65 kt, making Kenneth a category 1 hurricane. The initial motion of the hurricane is the same as before, 280/13 kt. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur on Monday as a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the system weakens. After that time, Kenneth is expected to move even slower to the north-northwest when it moves into a break in the ridge caused by a cut-off low near the southwestern United States. Overall the models are in fair agreement with this scenario, but they differ in where and when Kenneth begins to recurve. The consensus aids have been quite consistent over the past few cycles, and this forecast is largely just an update of the previous one. The environmental conditions are conducive for Kenneth to strengthen some more during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, however, cooler waters along the expected track and drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause weakening. In addition, the global models show a significant increase in southerly shear beginning in about 72 hours, which should aid in the weakening trend. The intensity models are in very good agreement, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Kenneth will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it will be over SSTs of about 23 deg C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.3N 127.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.8N 129.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 19.0N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 23.7N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.7N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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