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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-14 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the confidence in the track forecast remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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