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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-15 16:54:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151454 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates. The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to reduce the forecast too much for now. Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is low due to the large model spread at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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