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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-15 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the latest TAFB fix. While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting further modifications could be necessary later. The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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