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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-08 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080846 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 Recent microwave data indicate that the inner-core structure of Linda has improved since the previous advisory. A couple of AMSU overpasses show that the primary convective band once again wraps around the center, and that a ragged eye is trying to form. The microwave images and 0516 UTC ASCAT data were very helpful in locating the center of Linda, and these data indicate that the center is more embedded within the CDO than earlier in the evening. The initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt, which is between the various Dvorak intensity estimates. Given the recent increase in inner core organization, the initial wind speed estimate could be a little conservative. Although the official intensity forecast shows no change in strength during the next 12 hours, environmental conditions consisting of warm water and relatively low shear could allow for a little intensification this morning. After that time, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable thermodynamic factors should cause weakening. The spin down should become more rapid in 36 to 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius and into a more stable environment. The tropical cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. Linda has been moving a little to the right of previous estimates, and the motion is now north-northwest or 335/9 kt. The model guidance suggests that the motion will bend back toward the northwest later today as the cyclone moves around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico. After 72 hours, the remnant low is expected to turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low-level flow to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The model envelope has again shifted to the right and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.1N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.5N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 23.8N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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