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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-09 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090839 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate overnight, with the eye becoming much less distinct and the surrounding cloud tops have warmed. The latest microwave imagery also shows that the northeastern portion of the eye has eroded. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 85 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Linda will be moving over SSTs below 26C and into a drier and more stable air mass today. This should result in rapid weakening and Linda is forecast to become a tropical storm within 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant low in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus. Linda is moving northwestward or 325/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward speed over the next couple of days. After that time, the more shallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula. The official track forecast lies between the GFS, which takes a stronger Linda more northward, and the ECMWF model that moves a weaker Linda more westward. Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward into southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.2N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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