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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-09 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Deep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda, with only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low by 48 hours, or even a bit sooner. The initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving northwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more westward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the southwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the right and faster to account for the initial position and motion and the latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally close to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the forecast period. Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern Baja California peninsula today and reach southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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