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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-07 04:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070253 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Linda has been rapidly intensifying. Within the cyclone's sprawling circulation, a relatively small central dense overcast (CDO) has formed during the last 6 to 12 hours over the estimated low-level center. The deep convection within this feature has expanded in coverage, the associated cloud tops have cooled considerably, and its shape has become increasingly more symmetric. A 0110 UTC Windsat pass confirmed the rapid increase of inner-core structural organization, with a closed low-level ring of convection evident. A TAFB satellite classification of a T4.0/65 kt and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.2/70 kt are used to raise the initial intensity to 65 kt. The current rapid intensification is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so, since Linda will be moving over anomalously warm waters of 28 to 29.5 deg C and embedded in a very moist environment. The only negative factor could be some northeasterly shear as indicated in SHIPS model output. However, this shear has not prevented Linda from strengthening much faster than the climatological rate of one T-number per day thus far. A more poleward and faster track forecast (described below) should bring Linda over cooler waters sooner, and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause rapid weakening to begin in 2 to 3 days. Remnant low status is shown at day 5, but it would not be surprising if it occurred earlier. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and shows a peak intensity in 24 hours. Overall, it is just above the strongest guidance, the SHIPS and FSU Superensemble output, in the short term and near the multi-model consensus after that. Linda has been moving more poleward and faster, and the initial motion estimate is 320/12. Water vapor and upper-air analyses show a large mid-level anticyclone near the Texas-Mexico border, with a weakness in the ridge between 120-130W. Global models show Linda moving northwestward to north-northwestward toward the break in this ridge within a deep-layer southeasterly flow during the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and shifts westward over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days, Linda should continue northwestward but decelerate. The rapid weakening forecast to begin around that time should make Linda a progressively shallower cyclone, and its track is forecast to bend west-northwestward and westward by days 4 and 5 as it will then be under the influence of the low-level subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is shifted to the right and faster than the previous one through 72 hours, and is close to the multi-model consensus. By day 5, the track is slower and a bit to the left of the old forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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