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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-07 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071433 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 Linda continues to gain strength. The cloud pattern consists of a well organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops and curved bands spiraling around it. There is no eye feature evident in satellite images, but a recent SSMIS microwave pass did indicate that an eye was present. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support raising the initial intensity to 85 kt, making Linda a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The rate of intensification of Linda has been an impressive 45 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane remains in a moist and relatively low wind shear environment and over 28-29 deg C waters. These favorable conditions should allow Linda to strengthen some more today, and it could reach major hurricane status by tonight. After that time, the waters begin to cool beneath the storm and environmental relative humidity values decrease. These more stable conditions should induce a weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in 4-5 days when it moves over sea surface temperatures of around 24 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the intensity model consensus thereafter. Linda has been on a steady northwestward track at about 12 kt for the past 12-24 hours, steered by a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This motion is expected to continue for about another day as the steering pattern is maintained. After that time, the storm is expected to decelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn gradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of the forecast period. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 114.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 22.2N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 23.6N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 25.7N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 26.1N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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