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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-17 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 131 WTPZ44 KNHC 172033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared imagery show that Lane's inner core continues to develop rapidly. The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago, and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times. The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a compromise of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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