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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-18 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 974 WTPZ44 KNHC 181451 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane's inner-core convective organization has continued to improve with satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye remains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support increasing the intensity to 120 kt. The initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little change in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest NHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no significant changes to the previous advisory track. The large expansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is forecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a result, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that motion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast track, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC. Although Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during the forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level environment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24 hours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the prolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be downward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the intensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data than what the SHIPS model guidance is using. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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