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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-08-18 22:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 831 WTPZ44 KNHC 182033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite imagery. The distinct 15 nmi-wide eye is surrounded by a ring of convection with clouds tops around -65 to -70C. The clouds tops have warmed slightly but the subjective and objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers are unchanged so the initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt for this advisory. The hurricane continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should keep the hurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading during the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward which is expected to take Lane on a more westward course between 36 and 72 hours. By day 4, Lane will be approaching the western portion of the ridge which should result in a turn back toward the west-northwest. The lastest iterations of the UKMET and GFS models have shifted southward but remain along the northern side of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains along the southern side of the guidance and also depicts a much faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly southward to be near the latest consensus aids. The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. Lane will be moving over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius throughout the forecast period, but some west to northwesterly vertical shear is expected to affect the hurricane. As a result, gradually weakening is indicated in the official forecast over the next few days. A more significant increase in shear late in the forecast period could result in a faster rate of weakening at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance during the first 24 to 48 hours, and then is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus later in the period. Lane will move into the Central Pacific Basin very soon and this is last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Lane can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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