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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2024-10-06 22:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 446 WTNT23 KNHC 062034 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-06 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.5, -94.0 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 5A
2024-10-06 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061748 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics