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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 28
2024-10-09 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity at 70 kt. Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049 UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-09 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 21.2, -47.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 28
2024-10-09 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics