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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 69
2018-10-13 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 131433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 69 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 Despite Leslie moving over 20C ocean and being embedded within strong shear, satellite data indicate that Leslie has maintained its deep warm core and is running ahead of a cold front. Although convection has weakened considerably, Dvorak estimates indicate that the winds are still 65 kt. All indications are that Leslie will acquire extratropical characteristics in the next several hours, and by the time it reaches the Iberian peninsula later today, the system will be a powerful post-tropical cyclone. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over Spain in a day or so. Leslie is racing toward the northeast or 055 degrees at about 29 kt while embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeastward motion with gradual decrease in forward speed is anticipated in the next 12 to 24 hours. This is consistent with most of the track guidance, which unanimously brings the core of the post-tropical cyclone over the Iberian peninsula tonight. The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling hazards information for their respective countries via local weather products. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of western Spain tonight and Sunday. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 38.0N 12.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 40.0N 8.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 41.5N 4.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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