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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-20 16:52:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201452 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 65 kt. Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at 2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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