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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-20 23:02:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 951 WTPZ45 KNHC 202102 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt. However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the center. More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland Mexican coast. For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to to the left, depending on the new track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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