je.st
news
Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-21 04:56:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210256 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La Paz. Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled eye. Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly conservative 70 kt. Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast track, and the initial motion is now 330/7. The hurricane is mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right since the last advisory. As a result, the new forecast track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to move up the length of the Gulf of California. However, the GFS, the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories. The new forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico. Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions. The intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this time, and the official forecast follows the guidance. However, it would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the current structure. After that, the cyclone should encounter strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||