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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-21 17:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211459 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide a better assessment of Lorena's winds. Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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