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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-19 04:44:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190244 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in the 37-GHz channel. The convective signature in infrared satellite imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot may be developing near the estimated center. Objective SATCON and ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a 65-kt hurricane. Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico. If the center stays just offshore, which several of the models show, then a strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF is the only model at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the next 12-24 hours. All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Based on this track, environmental conditions appear favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days. Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values. As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and on Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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