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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-19 10:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190843 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65 kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and these winds are limited to a very small area near the center. Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest. Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will continue as a separate system through five days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula and others to the east. The NHC forecast follows the previous one, and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the peninsula. This forecast is highly uncertain at this time. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern Mexico today. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction currently occuring. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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