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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-26 12:03:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261003 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is 10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is required to update the intensity forecast. Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments, especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning. No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the previous regular advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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