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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-25 16:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251434 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The area of the coldest cloud tops surrounding Marie's eye has been gradually shrinking in size while the eye has started to cool. However, Marie is still a powerful hurricane, and a blend of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support maintaining an intensity of 125 kt for this advisory. A 1207 UTC SSMI/S pass indicated that Marie still has a concentric eyewall structure, so an eyewall replacement has not yet occurred. Upper-level outflow has become a little restricted on the northwest side of the hurricane, but vertical shear is expected to remain light for much of the forecast period. Internal dynamics, especially the continued potential of an eyewall replacement, will likely influence Marie's intensity during the next 24 hours. After that time, quick weakening is expected since Marie will be moving over sub-26C waters. The intensity models are in good agreement in Marie's rate of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast is therefore very close to the intensity consensus. Marie has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the hurricane is expected to steer Marie on a northwestward or west-northwestward heading through day 4. The depiction of a developing mid-level high along the California/northwest Mexico coast in 3 days has been a little stronger in recent model runs, and as a result, the track guidance for Marie has shifted westward. The updated NHC track forecast is close to a clustering of the GFS, ECMWF, and TVCE beyond 48 hours. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.9N 114.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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