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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-19 22:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192046 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Maria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central pressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb. The aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the inner eyewall. The initial motion remains 300/9. The forecast track philosophy remains the same, with the eye of Maria expected to move near the U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and across Puerto Rico on Wednesday, followed by a motion just north of the eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Subsequently, a break in the subtropical ridge caused in part by Hurricane Jose should allow Maria to turn north-northwestward and northward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes have occurred in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its maximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start of the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little bit. The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and after that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level winds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands. Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A hurricane warning also in effect for the remainder of the Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. 4. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.8N 64.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.5N 65.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 18.4N 66.7W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 36H 21/0600Z 19.3N 68.1W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 21/1800Z 20.2N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 25.5N 72.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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