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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-02 10:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020844 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie has strengthened further since the last advisory, with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now at 115 kt and the CIMSS ADT estimate now near 130 kt. However, during the past couple of hours, satellite imagery shows that the eye has become less well defined. It is unclear at this time whether this is because the hurricane is starting an eyewall replacement or whether it has peaked in intensity. The initial intensity for this advisory is increased to a possibly conservative 115 kt. Marie currently has good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/13 kt as the hurricane is being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. The system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slower forward speed during the next several days as it approaches the western periphery of the ridge and a broad mid-latitude trough well off the California coast. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario through 72 h, but there remains increasing spread after that time, which is likely due to model differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the trough influences its steering. The guidance shifted a little to the north of the previous guidance through 72 h, so the new forecast track is also nudged northward during that time. The new track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. If Marie is not undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening during the next 12-18 h. After that, the system will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and entraining dryer air, which should cause weakening. An faster weakening is expected after 36 h due to increasing westerly shear. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and through 72 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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