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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-04 10:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040834 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye, and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is beginning to decouple from the low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates from TAFB/SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler waters. Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast then. The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near or below the model consensus. The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance is fairly divergent at long range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough. The new forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little west of the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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