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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-01 10:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010835 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has become much better organized over the past several hours, with a nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON. Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification (RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26 degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance. The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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