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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-05 22:59:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052059 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen. A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton is in an environment of light shear and very warm water. The official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility. Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points. Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora. Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14. Newton should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48 hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern United States. The biggest change in the latest model cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of the previous guidance. This makes sense because, with a stronger Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would steer the deeper storm in that direction. The new NHC track prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period. Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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