je.st
news
Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-05 04:50:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050250 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed much during the past several hours. There has been no evidence of an eye in either geostationary or recent microwave images, however the central dense overcast remains fairly symmetric with cloud tops colder than -80C. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain unchanged and the initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt. The hurricane has likely peaked in intensity and some slight weakening is predicted during the next 24 hours while the large circulation interacts with land and begins to ingest some drier and more stable air from the west. After that time, Norbert is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. This should lead to a faster rate of weakening and Norbert is predicted to become a remnant low in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first day or so, and in good agreement with the intensity consensus thereafter. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Norbert is moving north- northwestward or 330/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. The model guidance has once again shifted eastward during the first 48 hours, which has required another eastward adjustment to the NHC track. Although none of the guidance models show the center of Norbert crossing the coast of the Baja peninsula, the eastward shift means that the core of the hurricane is likely to pass closer to portions of the Pacific coast of Baja. Only a slight deviation to the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds to the coast. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula. As noted in the previous discussion, large spread remains in the track guidance after 72 hours, and the NHC track lies near the multi-model consensus at days 4 and 5. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||