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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290852 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 There have been no recent in-situ observations for estimating the intensity of Nora, but the cyclone is still fairly well-organized on satellite images. Taking a blend of T- and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports keeping the system as a hurricane at this time. Center fixes indicate that Nora is moving a little west of due north at a decreased forward speed, or around 350/9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days, on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. This would take Nora over the eastern part of the Gulf of California, but very near the coast of mainland Mexico over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to the east, and now suggests that it is a very distinct possibility that the system will move inland much sooner than shown by the latest NHC track forecast. The future intensity of Nora is of course highly dependent on how soon the center moves inland. The official intensity forecast assumes that the system will remain just offshore so that only slow weakening will occur during the next 72 hours or so. This is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus guidance. Alternatively, Nora may move inland sooner than indicated, in which case the system would probably dissipate in 2 to 3 days or less. Obviously, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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