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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-31 10:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 323 WTPZ41 KNHC 310836 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Norman appears to have weakened over the past several hours. Cloud tops around the eye have warmed, and the eye itself has become less distinct. Several recent microwave overpasses show little indication that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway, but it is possible that our ability to observe such a cycle is limited by the resolution of the available instruments. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased and supported at most an intensity of 125 kt at 0600 UTC. Given the continued warming of cloud tops near the inner core since that time, the initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt. Due to the lower initial intensity, the intensity forecast has also been lowered slightly, particularly for the first 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period, though larger short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are possible, if not likely, while Norman remains a hurricane. By the end of the forecast period, a faster weakening rate is anticipated as Norman is forecast to move over cooler SSTs and reach a drier environment. The NHC forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance envelope and near the intensity consensus. The hurricane has continued to move west-southwestward at 8 kt. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids. The hurricane should turn westward, and then west-northwestward, as it is steered primarily by a deep-layer ridge to the north for the next 5 days. With the exception of the UKMET global model, which is an outlier to the south, the global and regional dynamical models are in good agreement on the future path of Norman, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 16.9N 120.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 16.6N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 16.3N 125.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 133.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 20.5N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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