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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-09-02 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 561 WTPZ41 KNHC 021438 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Norman has made a remarkable and surprising come back today. Satellite images reveal a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection, and Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB reached T6.0 around 1200 UTC. These numbers have leveled off since then. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, making Norman again a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs, and although some of the intensity models are more aggressive in forecasting strengthening, the NHC forecast prefers the consensus IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 to 24 hours. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Norman, and this flow pattern will continue to steer the hurricane between the west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 to 3 days. By then, the ridge is forecast to be weaker and a turn toward the northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period. Track guidance is in very good agreement, and unanimously, all models forecast the gradual turn to the northwest beyond 4 days. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of the envelope and is not much different from the earlier one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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