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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-09-02 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 670 WTPZ41 KNHC 022034 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Norman has maintained a very distinct eye with a ring of deep convection all day. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have not changed and still are T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis, the initial intensity is being kept at 115 kt in this advisory. The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs, and intensity guidance is responding to the cooler water by gradually weakening the hurricane. The NHC forecast continues to follow the intensity consensus IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 hours. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the hurricane, and this flow pattern will continue to steer the cyclone between the west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 days or so. After that time, Norman will be near the southwestern edge of the ridge, and a turn toward the northwest should then begin. Most of the guidance shifted northward at very long ranges, so the NHC forecast was slightly adjusted in that direction accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.1N 130.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.7N 133.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.5N 136.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.5N 142.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 23.0N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 26.0N 152.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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