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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-09-03 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 256 WTPZ41 KNHC 030232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Satellite images indicate that Norman is maintaining its strength this evening. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and a ring of cold cloud tops surrounds that feature. However, the cloud tops have been warming a little during the past few hours. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the initial wind speed at 115 kt. Norman is currently located over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and it will be moving over slightly cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, the global models show the hurricane moving into an increasingly drier air mass and show a significant increase in shear in 4 to 5 days. All of these conditions suggest that Norman should steadily weaken, and the NHC forecast follows the trend in the model guidance. This forecast is in best agreement with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Norman continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimate the same as before, 285/17. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while Norman remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north-northeast. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and then a gradual turn to the northwest are predicted as Norman moves near the edge of the ridge and approaches a significant weakness caused by a large-scale trough. The models agree on this overall scenario, but they differ on the details of where and when Norman makes the northwestward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is near the typically most skillful aids, the consensus models. Based on this forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.6N 132.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.4N 150.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 26.2N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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