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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-03 16:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 016 WTPZ41 KNHC 031446 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term to account for the current intensity. Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean. However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it seems to be an outlier at this time. Hopefully the NOAA G-IV aircraft dropsonde data this afternoon will help resolve these model differences for the 0000 UTC cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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