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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-09-03 22:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 443 WTPZ41 KNHC 032038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Visible satellite images continues to depict a fairly symmetric hurricane with a ragged eye, however, a 1615 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the eye was open over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak data T-numbers are slowly decreasing, and a consensus of the various objective and subjective Dvorak CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt. Norman is forecast to move over marginally warm SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment during the next couple of days. Since the shear is expected to remain fairly low over the hurricane, weakening is anticipated to be gradual through mid-week. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause a more rapid rate of filling. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Norman is moving quickly westward or 280/17 kt. The hurricane is being steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north and it should keep Norman on a westward heading with some decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. A weakness in the ridge near 150W should cause Norman to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward after 72 hours. There is still considerable spread in the model guidance as to exactly when and where the turn will take place. The NHC track forecast is again close to the consensus models at the longer range, but the overall guidance envelope changed little, so the updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.5N 138.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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