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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-09-04 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 095 WTPZ41 KNHC 040235 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Norman continues to slowly weaken. Satellite images indicate that the banding features are not as well organized as they were earlier today, and the cloud tops have warmed some during the past few hours. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and a blend of the latest estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 80 kt. Norman continues to move quickly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north-northeast. This general heading, but with a significant decrease in forward speed, is expected during the next day or two while Norman nears the edge of the ridge. Thereafter, a turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected while Norman moves around the ridge and toward a large deep-layer trough over the northern Pacific. There remains a fair amount of spread on where and when Norman makes the turn, but the guidance did not change much overall this cycle. Therefore, only small changes were made to the previous advisory, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Norman could weaken a little more overnight and on Tuesday, but the guidance shows the intensity flattening out in the 24- to 48-hour time period. After that time, however, a sharp increase in shear, cooler waters, and a drier air mass should cause more significant weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. Now that Norman has crossed into the central Pacific basin, future advisories on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. These forecasts can be found on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.8N 140.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.3N 153.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 28.1N 155.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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