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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-29 22:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 894 WTPZ41 KNHC 292044 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Norman's cloud pattern has continued to organize with numerous convective bands and excellent upper-level outflow. More importantly, satellite images show an eye feature which has been depicted intermittently. Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached T4.0, and on this basis, Norman is being upgraded to hurricane status in this advisory. The environment of low shear and warm ocean continues to be ideal for intensification, and guidance continues to be pretty aggressive in bringing the winds up fast. The NHC forecast indicates rapid intensification, and predicts Norman to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours. Norman appears to be moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The high pressure ridge which is controlling the motion of the hurricane is expanding westward, and the flow pattern around the ridge should steer Norman on a west or even west-southwest track for the next 3 to 4 days. Track guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least for the next 3 to 4 days. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continue to lie very close to the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. The confidence in the track forecast is quite high at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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