je.st
news
Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-30 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 848 WTPZ41 KNHC 300236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Norman is steadily strengthening. Recent microwave images indicate that the hurricane now has a well-defined inner core with a banded eye feature evident in that data. The eye is not yet apparent in geostationary images, but the convective pattern is improving in organization and the cloud tops continue to become colder. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC supported an initial intensity of 70 kt, and since the system continues to become better organized, the initial wind speed for this advisory is increased to 75 kt. Now that Norman has an inner core, rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so while the hurricane remains in near ideal environmental conditions. The SHIPS rapid intensification indices are very high, and the NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the model guidance in the short term. Beyond a couple of days, an increase in shear and slightly cooler waters should promote a gradual weakening trend. Satellite images suggest that the forward speed of Norman has slowed to 280/7 kt. All of the models show a mid-level ridge amplifying to the north of the tropical cyclone during the next few days, and this should cause the hurricane to move westward or west-southwestward during that time. Thereafter, a turn back to the west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is predicted as Norman moves closer to the western periphery of the ridge. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
norman
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||