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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 482 WTPZ45 KNHC 100248 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore. The eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has increased to 90 kt. Based on this and an increase in the organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The initial motion is 325/10. Olaf should continue moving northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by low-level northeasterly flow. The forecast guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf interacts with the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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