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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-10-31 15:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311432 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Oscar is quickly transforming into an extratropical low. Although there is still a little bit of deep convection just north of the center, a more prominent cloud shield extends northward from the western part of the circulation. In addition, GOES-16 derived products show Oscar's center nearly embedded within a frontal zone and cold air advection occurring on the back side of the system. The maximum winds are a bit uncertain, but for now they are held at 65 kt based on the Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB and the latest microwave estimates, which range from 60-70 kt. Oscar is expected to complete extratropical transition later today when it becomes fully attached to the frontal boundary. Baroclinic energy is likely to keep the cyclone's intensity relatively steady for the next 48 hours or so, although it should be noted that the GFS shows some intensification later today as a sting jet develops to the west of the center. After 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to gradually lose strength, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the GFS model, which is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Despite this weakening, Oscar's wind field is expected to grow substantially, affecting a large portion of the north Atlantic Ocean over the next several days. A northeastward acceleration continues with an initial motion of 035/25 kt. Further acceleration toward the north Atlantic is expected during the next 48 hours while Oscar becomes more fully embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The new NHC track forecast was shifted slightly northward and westward from the previous forecast to trend closer to the latest consensus aids, but otherwise the track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of Bermuda through today. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 36.6N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 44.5N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 48.4N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 52.1N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z 57.8N 18.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 64.0N 5.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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